Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2,700,000 - 2,800,000 29.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 25, 6:10 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:04 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution: Resolves according to the number listed in FRED (CES9091000001) for December 2026 (Seasonally Adjusted).
- Context: As of November 2025, FRED lists 2,744,000 employees.
- If the reported figure is exactly between two buckets, it resolves to the higher bucket.
- I've included a reasonable range of buckets + "Other"—I can expand with other buckets if they seem relevant.
Open markets
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million+1.0pt98%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $146.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.1K
KALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-18.0pt30%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270099%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.9K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No93%
- Yes-2.0pt7%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $18.6K
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-31.0pt34%
- At least ¥74,000-39.0pt28%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.8K
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1K
- Housing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Federal employees at EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices 2,700,000 - 2,800,000 at 29% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Federal employees at EOY 2026? resolve?
- Federal employees at EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Federal employees at EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution: Resolves according to the number listed in FRED (CES9091000001) for December 2026 (Seasonally Adjusted).