Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 53.5%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 26, 25, 7:27 PM UTCDec 31, 31, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution: YES if, by 00:00 UTC on Jan 1, 2032, at least one prophylactic EBV vaccine (an active immunization product) has received regulatory authorization for use to prevent EBV infection or EBV‑associated disease (e.g., infectious mononucleosis, post‑transplant lymphoproliferative disease) from any of the following: FDA (U.S.), EMA (EU), MHRA (U.K.), PMDA (Japan), NMPA (China), Health Canada, TGA (Australia), or if the product appears on the WHO Emergency Use Listing (EUL) or the WHO prequalification (PQ) list for EBV prevention.
- What counts:
- Prophylactic EBV vaccines intended to prevent infection and/or clinical disease (e.g., Moderna’s mRNA‑1189; ferritin‑nanoparticle vaccines; other platforms).
- Approvals may be for specific age/risk groups or limited indications (e.g., prevention of mono in adolescents, or prevention of EBV disease in transplant recipients).
- Any formal regulatory approval/authorization meeting the above criteria counts.
- What doesn’t count: