What are the current odds for Is Epstein-Barr virus a causative factor in multiple sclerosis??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 93.9% as of October 25, 2026.

Is Epstein-Barr virus a causative factor in multiple sclerosis?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 93.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Jun 14, 23, 1:38 AM UTCOct 11, 90, 6:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolve to scientific consensus whenever that is reached.

Will resolve conservatively (i.e. lean towards leaving it open for another year).
Note that, from trevorklee, "More importantly, however, we don’t know the rest of the factors that contribute to MS. 90% of adults in the US have had EBV, while only 0.3% of adults have MS.
There must be other factors that make those 0.3% get MS while the other 89.7% do not, but it’s unclear what they are."
so this resolves YES if EBV causes the risk of getting MS if you have had EBV to be much higher than without EBV and NO otherwise
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj8222