Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastSevere deflation: CPI falls by more than 10%/year 23.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 27, 26, 2:51 AM UTCJun 27, 31, 2:46 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Assume that by Dec. 31, 2035, an AI system exists that is generally considered superintelligent relative to humans across economically relevant cognitive tasks, and assume human civilization and US government statistics still exist.
- This market resolves based on the annualized change in US CPI-U All Items over the five calendar years after the first year in which ASI exists.
- For example, if ASI first exists in 2031, resolve using CPI from Jan. 2032 to Jan. 2037.
- Use BLS CPI-U All Items, or the closest successor series if CPI-U is discontinued.
