Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 28, 25, 2:28 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gustavo Petro be convicted of a crime before January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk ever go to jail after being convicted of a crime?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent be directly convicted of a crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketLindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if either Chungin Roy Lee or Neel Shanmugam are convicted of a crime in any jurisdiction before 2028.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+17.0pt65%
- Yes-17.0pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $15.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 20265%
- Total Vol
- $578.5K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-6.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++1.5pt38.2%
- 20–40-0.9pt8.8%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028? resolve?
- Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if either Chungin Roy Lee or Neel Shanmugam are convicted of a crime in any jurisdiction before 2028.