Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastWarren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway 100%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
55
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+98.4 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 9, 25, 9:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:25 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
99.6%
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.
- Out means not CEO anymore.
- That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc. If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.
- If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.
- If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out?
- Manifold Markets prices Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out resolve?
- CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.