Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Resolved: Oct 30, 2026, 3:42 AM
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Tim Cook at Apple0%
Mark Zuckerberg at Meta0%
Andy Jassy at Amazon0%
Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway100%
Sundar Pichai at Google0%
Doug McMillon at Walmart100%
Dario Amodei at Anthropic0%
Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts0%
Mary Barra at General Motors0%
David Solomon at Goldman Sachs0%
Jensen Huang at Nvidia0%
C. C. Wei at TSMC0%
Ma Huateng at Tencent0%
Elon Musk at Tesla0%
Shantanu Narayen at Adobe0%
Bob Iger at Disney100%
Masayoshi Son at SoftBank0%
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PolymarketRules
The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.
- Out means not CEO anymore.
- That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc. If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.
- If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.
- If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.