CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
Corporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate9y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Mark Zuckerberg at Meta 67.1%Leader of 20 outcomes
Forecasters
58
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.6 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 19, 23, 4:36 PM UTCNov 27, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
As CEOs get removed or quit, we'll take them out and mark them 0.
- Once we get down to just three left, they will all get marked as 100% and the market will be over!
- Out means not CEO anymore.
- That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc. If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.
- If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.
Open markets
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $98.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.1pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+49.5pt99%
- No-49.5pt1%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
- $23.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest??
- Manifold Markets prices Mark Zuckerberg at Meta at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest? resolve?
- CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest? is scheduled to resolve on November 27, 2035.
- How is CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As CEOs get removed or quit, we'll take them out and mark them 0.