By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
AI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast< 0.05x 35.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 26, 1:41 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Intelligence bar
- "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent intelligence" is defined as any commercially available model scoring the same as Gemini 3 Pro on ECI or better
- Currently this is 154, but the bar will track any changes in ECI methodology that might change the 3 Pro score.
- Cost is defined as the price for 1m input tokens plus 1m output tokens for the cheapest model that passes the quality bar, at the generally-available API pricing tier for that model.
- At time of writing, 3-pro preview costs $2/Mtok input plus $12/Mtok output, so $14 is the reference cost basis.
- E.g. a future qualifying model that costs $1/Mtok input plus $3/MTok output would resolve as 4/14 = 0.286... thus 0.2x-0.5x.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year??
- Manifold Markets prices < 0.05x at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? resolve?
- By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Intelligence bar