Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88%
Forecasters
279
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 12, 23, 1:48 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By the end of 2028, will any of the Merriam-Webster Word of the Year finalists be AI-generated?
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated music receive a Grammy nomination by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn? resolve?
- By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.