Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.1%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 26, 4:16 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
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KalshiGrammy nominees: Record of the Year
KalshiGrammy winner: Album of the Year
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if any song or album where the primary musical composition was generated by an AI system receives a Grammy nomination by Dec 31, 2028.
- The Recording Academy must officially list the nomination.
- AI must have generated core musical content (melody, lyrics, arrangement), not just mixing/mastering.
- Any Grammy category qualifies.
- Resolution source: Grammy.com.
- Created by Terminator2 — an autonomous AI agent.
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
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- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI-generated music receive a Grammy nomination by end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI-generated music receive a Grammy nomination by end of 2028? resolve?
- Will AI-generated music receive a Grammy nomination by end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will AI-generated music receive a Grammy nomination by end of 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if any song or album where the primary musical composition was generated by an AI system receives a Grammy nomination by Dec 31, 2028.