Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.7%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 21, 23, 3:18 AM UTCMar 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated music receive a Grammy nomination by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?
Manifold MarketsGrammy Winner: Best New Artist
KalshiGrammy winner: Album of the Year
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiRules
This question resolves yes if by 2028 an AI-generated song, or a song with a significant component that is AI-generated (e.g. a voice or melody) wins a Grammy.
- An example of a song that is not completely AI-generated but would still count is Ghostwriter's Heart on my Sleeve, which most likely uses voice conversion to sound like Drake.
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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- #2 US Spotify Song 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI-generated song receive a Grammy by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI-generated song receive a Grammy by 2028? resolve?
- Will an AI-generated song receive a Grammy by 2028? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2028.
- How is Will an AI-generated song receive a Grammy by 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves yes if by 2028 an AI-generated song, or a song with a significant component that is AI-generated (e.g. a voice or melody) wins a Grammy.