Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.8%
Forecasters
92
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 26, 6:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:27 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if an ICE agent kills an American citizen before December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on verified news reports confirming the death of a U.S. citizen at the hands of an ICE agent.
- The victim must be confirmed as a U.S. citizen by credible sources (news organizations, government statements, or court documents).
- Accidental deaths unrelated to enforcement actions do not count.
- An ICE agent fatally shot a woman in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026, marking a significant escalation in immigration enforcement operations.
Open markets
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
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- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
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KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
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+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen? resolve?
- Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria