Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92.7%
Forecasters
100
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingMay 25, 24, 10:11 PM UTCJan 2, 35, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
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PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.
- I expect it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will evaluate as independently as possible.
- I may copy clarifications from that market, but that is per my judgment.
- The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
