Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet??

Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet? resolve?

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/3648/)

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+2.2pt55.7%
• Claude+2.1pt36.7%
• ChatGPT-1.2pt6.3%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$16.2M

24h Vol

$139.4K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T-1.9pt94%
• ↑$1.75T+5.5pt86%
• ↑$2.0T+1.0pt71%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-2.0pt28.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T+2.5pt24.2%
• $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt20.2%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-1.1pt93%
• November 30-10.5pt80%
• November 19-6.5pt69%

+27 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+1.8pt100%
• Alibaba0%
• Amazon0%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

• 1.5T+-2.3pt37%
• No IPO by December 31, 2027-1.2pt21%
• 1.25T–1.5T12%

+4 more outcomes

• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Anthropic IPO Date
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Google market share this week
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?