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Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

One-OffAI3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 53.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Aug 1, 26, 4:22 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC

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Outcome24hChance

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(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/3648/)(Identical market to: source market)

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Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Open markets

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

When will Gemini Carbon be released?

Anthropic IPO by which date?

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Open markets

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

When will Gemini Carbon be released?

Anthropic IPO by which date?