Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 82.7%
No 82.7%Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 24, 6:57 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is an online encyclopedia other than Wikipedia on January 1, 2027 satisfying the following conditions:
- - At least 5 billion words of original English, spanning roughly as wide a variety of topics as Wikipedia itself.
- - The large majority (>90%) of text should credibly have been written by an AI
- - Articles systematically meet the same or better standards of citation as Wikipedia, judged in terms of the broad veracity, extent, and variety of sources.
- I do not necessarily require that the competitor has licensing or particular citation policies (such as the No Original Research policy) matching those of Wikipedia.
- - For a random sample of at least 100 articles on the competitor where there was an equivalent Wikipedia article in late 2024 (i.e. not recent events), I prefer the competitor's article at least 65% of the time over the late-2024 Wikipedia version of the article.
