Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 83.1% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027? resolve?

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2027.

How is Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: at every moment, the model number of the best "released" version of the "best" model for coding (to choose one particular domain) from OpenAI will be higher (numerically) than that of Anthropic.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$83.4K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.5pt52.2%
• Gemini-1.8pt35.7%
• ChatGPT-0.1pt

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+1.0pt8%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 675T tokens+16.0pt99.5%
• Above 650T tokens+33.0pt99.5%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T28.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.8pt19.2%
• $2.0–$2.25T-1.8pt18.2%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-4.0pt56%
• 2026-1.5pt14%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1M

24h Vol

$46.5K

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