Current community forecast
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash 100%Leader of 20 outcomes
Forecasters
123
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+20.4 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 30, 26, 9:40 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
September 2026 AI model releases
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWill OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
- Please ask for clarifications.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for September 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets prices Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does September 2026 AI model releases resolve?
- September 2026 AI model releases is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is September 2026 AI model releases settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during September 2026.