Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 7:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)
Manifold MarketsAlcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)
Manifold MarketsWill Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- Alcoa's 2025 alumina segment production guidance is 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons.
- This market resolves YES if Alcoa's reported 2026 full-year alumina segment production exceeds 9.5 million metric tons (9,500 kt).
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official earnings reports and SEC filings, specifically the full-year 2026 production figures disclosed in their Q4 2026 earnings release or annual 10-K filing.
- The market resolves NO if production is 9.5 Mt or below.
- Alcoa operates six refineries in Australia, Brazil and Spain with installed capacity of 17 million metric tons per year.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt) resolve?
- Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria