Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 7:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)
Manifold MarketsAlcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)
Manifold MarketsWagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)
Manifold MarketsWagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Ubuntu be sued in Brazil?
Manifold MarketsWill a manifold.markets website be blocked in Brazil in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Alcoa's 2025 alumina segment production guidance is 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons.
- This market resolves YES if Alcoa's reported 2026 full-year alumina segment production exceeds 9.5 million metric tons (9,500 kt).
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official earnings reports and SEC filings, specifically the full-year 2026 production figures disclosed in their Q4 2026 earnings release or annual 10-K filing.
- The market resolves NO if production is 9.5 Mt or below.
- Alcoa operates six refineries in Australia, Brazil and Spain with installed capacity of 17 million metric tons per year.
