Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 7:20 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Wagerup's alumina production in 2026 exceeds 2.5 million tonnes (2,500 kt).
- Resolution will be determined by Alcoa's official 2026 annual production figures, which should be disclosed in quarterly earnings reports or annual sustainability reports available on Alcoa's investor relations website (https://news.alcoa.com).
- Wagerup Refinery has a capacity of 2.9 million tonnes per year and is the second largest producer of alumina in the AWAC global joint venture between Alumina Limited and Alcoa.
- In Q3 2025, alumina production increased 4 percent sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons, primarily due to higher output from Australian refineries with lower maintenance in the quarter.
- An efficiency project aims to enable the two existing refinery production units to achieve approximately 3.3 million tonnes per annum, up from the current licensed capacity of 2.85 Mtpa.