Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.1%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 7:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt)
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alcoa's aluminum segment production in 2026 exceeds 2.3 million metric tons (2,300 kt), as reported in the company's official full-year 2026 earnings release or SEC filings.
- The resolution will be based on actual production figures disclosed by Alcoa Corporation for the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution source: Alcoa Investor Relations or SEC EDGAR filings.
- Alcoa expects 2025 aluminum segment production of 2.3-2.5 million tonnes, with the lower bound at exactly 2.3 Mt. In Q3 2025, aluminum segment production increased 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons, driven by continued progress on the San Ciprián, Spain smelter restart.
- Aluminum production increased 5% annually in 2024 primarily due to the restart of capacity at the Warrick smelter and continued progress on the Alumar smelter restart.