Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)
One-OffCommoditiesBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 87.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 7:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alcoa Australia's total alumina production in 2026 exceeds 6.0 million metric tons (6,000 kt).
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official 2026 full-year production figures disclosed in earnings reports or investor presentations, available at https://investors.alcoa.com/.
- The threshold is 6,000 kt; production of exactly 6.0 Mt or below resolves NO.
- Alcoa's three-refinery operation in Western Australia is the world's biggest single source of alumina, able to supply eight percent of the global market.
- In September 2025, Alcoa announced the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery in Australia, which will reduce total Australian alumina capacity.
Open markets
CommoditiesKALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 8, 2026?
- Above $90.99+14.0pt99%
- Above $90.49+9.0pt99%
- Above $83.4999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $478.9K
- 24h Vol
- $306.2K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 more outcomes
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $147.5K
- 24h Vol
- $147.5K
KALSHINatural gas price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $2.85097%
- Above $2.85594%
- Above $2.86089%
+67 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.1K
- 24h Vol
- $131.5K
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.150099%
- Above 4.145099%
- Above 4.135099%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.6K
- 24h Vol
- $128.4K
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Above $85.4999%
- Above $85.99+7.0pt99%
- Above $84.9999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $131.8K
- 24h Vol
- $90.6K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt) resolve?
- Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria