Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)
One-OffCommoditiesBusiness & Corporate2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.6%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 7:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)
Manifold MarketsAlcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt)
Manifold MarketsAlcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)
Manifold MarketsWill China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsKentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026
KalshiCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alcoa Australia's total alumina production in 2026 exceeds 6.0 million metric tons (6,000 kt).
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official 2026 full-year production figures disclosed in earnings reports or investor presentations, available at https://investors.alcoa.com/.
- The threshold is 6,000 kt; production of exactly 6.0 Mt or below resolves NO.
- Alcoa's three-refinery operation in Western Australia is the world's biggest single source of alumina, able to supply eight percent of the global market.
- In September 2025, Alcoa announced the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery in Australia, which will reduce total Australian alumina capacity.
