Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:15 PM UTCMar 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if China's alumina (Al2O3) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 85 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 NBS monthly industrial output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- China is the world's largest alumina producer, accounting for roughly 60% of global output.
- Annual production has run between 75-82 Mt over 2022-2024 and has tracked aluminium-smelter demand closely.
- Crossing 85 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent meaningful growth from current levels and require either capacity utilisation gains or additional refinery commissioning during 2026-2027.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
