Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.9%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingMay 4, 26, 5:16 PM UTCMar 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Guinea bauxite exports exceed 140 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -6.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -8.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if Indonesia's primary aluminum (smelter output) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 1.5 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 ESDM monthly output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- Indonesia is one step further down the supply chain from alumina: bauxite -> alumina -> primary aluminum.
- Domestic primary aluminum capacity comes mostly from Inalum's Kuala Tanjung smelter (~250-300 kt/yr) plus expansion projects under the post-2023 industrial-localisation push.
- Crossing 1.5 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent a meaningful ramp from the ~250 kt 2023 baseline and would suggest the bauxite-to-smelter strategy is producing real material rather than just intermediate alumina.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
