Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 87.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingMay 4, 26, 5:14 PM UTCMar 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceed 140 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 monthly customs print (which publishes with a ~2-month lag) is available before resolution.
- Guinea is the world's largest bauxite exporter, supplying roughly 60% of China's bauxite imports.
- Annual export volume has roughly doubled since 2017 with capacity expansions at Boké province operations (CBG, SMB, GAC) and the Boffa concessions.
- Crossing 140 Mt for calendar 2027 would require sustained ramp from the ~90 Mt 2023 baseline.
- Resolution sources (priority order):