Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.2%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 5:58 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026
Manifold MarketsAlcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt)
Manifold MarketsAlcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)
Manifold MarketsAlcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The Wagerup gallium plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually.
- This market resolves YES if production in the trailing twelve months (T12M) as of Q2 2027 exceeds 10 tonnes.
- Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official quarterly or annual production reports, or verified third-party sources reporting Wagerup gallium output.
- The market resolves NO if T12M production as of Q2 2027 is 10 tonnes or below.
- Alcoa's Wagerup gallium plant is located at the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, with development supported by Japan Australia Gallium Associates (JAGA), a joint venture between the Japanese government and Sojitz, through a Joint Development Agreement signed with Alcoa in August 2025.
Open markets
Commodities
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.175099%
- Above 4.160099%
- Above 4.170099%
+26 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $460.1K
- 24h Vol
- $459.9K
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.900099%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $230.5K
- 24h Vol
- $230.4K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIOhio gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.900099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $91.2K
- 24h Vol
- $91.2K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1400+25.0pt99%
- Above 4.1200+10.0pt99%
- Above 4.0800+5.0pt99%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Brent crude oil price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 8, 2026
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Pennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027 resolve?
- Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027 is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2027.
- How is Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria