Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026
TechOne-OffCommoditiesBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 5:41 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if the Wagerup gallium plant begins operations by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Alcoa Corporation or the joint venture partners (JAGA, US government, Australian government) confirming that the facility has produced its first gallium metal.
- The plant is expected to produce 100 metric tons of gallium annually once operational.
- Alcoa Corporation is developing a gallium plant at its Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, with support from the US and Australian governments and a joint venture between the Japanese Government and Sojitz Corporation.
- Gallium is naturally present in bauxite, the raw material used in alumina production, and can be extracted during the refining process.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026 resolve?
- Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria