Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 28, 26, 7:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China restrict exports of arsenic trichloride or gallium arsenide on December 31, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China maintains an active export restriction (prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement under UNCTAD MAST P3 classification) on gallium and gallium compounds (HS 811292).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.
