Will China restrict exports of arsenic trichloride or gallium arsenide on December 31, 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China restrict exports of arsenic trichloride or gallium arsenide on December 31, 2026??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 88% as of October 23, 2026.

When does Will China restrict exports of arsenic trichloride or gallium arsenide on December 31, 2026? resolve?

Will China restrict exports of arsenic trichloride or gallium arsenide on December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will China restrict exports of arsenic trichloride or gallium arsenide on December 31, 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement scoped exactly to arsenic trichloride, HS 2812191010, or gallium arsenide and indium gallium arsenide under items 3C001.e and 3C001.f.

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