What are the current odds for Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65.1% as of October 25, 2026.

Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 65.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Nov 26, 25, 5:13 AM UTCApr 28, 27, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution Use the first USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries “Iron and Steel Slag” that includes 2026 world data:

Take the midpoint of the world iron slag range (from BF pig iron) and the midpoint of the world steel slag range (from steel furnaces).
Let TOTAL_2026 = iron_mid_2026 + steel_mid_2026.
YES if TOTAL_2026 > 595 Mt, otherwise NO
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the first USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries report that includes 2026 world data shows combined global iron and steel slag output exceeding 595 million tonnes.