Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 16, 25, 9:21 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will AI sex bots (like deepfake companions) cause a major celeb scandal (e.g., ‘leaked’ VR session) with >10M views by 2026?
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, all are true:
- A widely recognized celebrity (has an English Wikipedia standalone page) is the subject of a publicly reported controversy specifically involving AI sexual technology (e.g., explicit deepfakes of the celebrity, or an interactive “sex-bot”/companion/VR avatar purported to involve them).
- The incident is covered by at least two reputable mainstream outlets (e.g., AP, BBC, Reuters, NYT, WSJ, The Verge, Variety), and either the celebrity/their reps publicly comment or take action (e.g., legal demand/lawsuit), or a platform issues an official moderation statement about the incident.
- At least one public post on X (any account; meme/news/video/quote) about the incident reaches ≥10,000,000 “views” as displayed on the post before the cutoff. “Views” are counted per X’s definition: help.x.com/en/using-twitter/view-counts.
