Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
X = 5 100%Leader of 13 outcomes
X = 5 100%Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 4:54 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 6:29 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":
- [image]For the unassisted leaderboard, please refer to the following market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench)Leaderboard live:
- (https://www.swebench.com/)