Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 50.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 26, 7:40 PM UTCOct 27, 26, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: October 2026
LimitlessWill Fed raise interest rates in 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its October 27β28, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting.
- Resolve NO if the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged or lowers it.
- Resolution will be based on the first official Federal Reserve monetary policy statement issued for the October 27β28, 2026 FOMC meeting.
- The size of the increase does not matter.
- Any increase in the target range counts as YES.
- Changes to forward guidance, the balance sheet, quantitative tightening, Treasury operations, or any other policy measure do not count unless the target range for the federal funds rate is also increased.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt99%
- 1 (25 bps)-1.1pt1%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.1M
- 24h Vol
- $84.1K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase54.5%
- No change43.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.8M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Fed maintains rate46.8%
- Hike 25bps-4.0pt45.8%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt3.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.8K
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate43.3%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+3.0pt86.1%
- No-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $70.3K
- 24h Vol
- $24.8K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase67.3%
- No change30.7%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed Rate Decision (Jan 2027)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026? resolve?
- πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 27, 2026.
- How is πΊπΈ Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its October 27β28, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting.