KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.04% or above (99%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 5, 2026, 7:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.04% or above44%
5.12% or above0%
5.06% or above92%
5% or above93%
4.98% or above75%
5.02% or above60%
4.94% or above93%
4.96% or above90%
5.08% or above26%
5.04% or aboveWon
5% or aboveLost
4.98% or aboveLost
5.02% or aboveLost
4.86% or aboveLost
4.88% or aboveLost
4.9% or aboveLost
4.92% or aboveLost
5.06% or aboveLost
4.96% or aboveLost
5.08% or aboveLost
5.1% or aboveLost
4.94% or aboveLost
5.14% or aboveLost
5.12% or aboveLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 5, 2026, or one week following Oct 5, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.