KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.61% or above (99%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 10:04 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
4.61% or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.11% or above97%
5.01% or above97%
5.07% or above80%
5.09% or above76%
5.03% or above87%
5.05% or above86%
5.25% or above70%
5.13% or above95%
5.15% or above96%
5.17% or above95%
4.89% or above99%
5.23% or above83%
5.19% or above0%
5.29% or above87%
4.73% or above0%
4.77% or above99%
4.79% or above99%
4.81% or above99%
4.83% or above99%
4.85% or above99%
5.23% or aboveLost
5.25% or aboveLost
5.27% or aboveLost
5.21% or aboveLost
5.11% or aboveLost
5.13% or aboveLost
5.15% or aboveLost
5.17% or aboveLost
5.19% or aboveLost
4.61% or aboveWon
4.63% or aboveLost
4.67% or aboveLost
4.69% or aboveLost
4.71% or aboveLost
4.75% or aboveLost
4.77% or aboveLost
4.79% or aboveLost
4.81% or aboveLost
4.83% or aboveLost
4.85% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.60% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 30, 2026, or one week following Sep 30, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.62% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.66% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.68% on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
