KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 3.5% 97%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$644.7
Low liquiditySpread
97.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 29, 26, 11:00 PM UTCFeb 1, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US headline CPI inflation in December 2027
KalshiUS headline CPI inflation in December 2036
KalshiUS headline CPI inflation in December 2035
KalshiWill August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2034 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index
- The initially reported value for December 2034 will be used.
- This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2034, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.
- If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2034 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2034 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2034 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US headline CPI inflation in December 2034?
- Kalshi prices Above 3.5% at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US headline CPI inflation in December 2034 resolve?
- US headline CPI inflation in December 2034 is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2035.
- How is US headline CPI inflation in December 2034 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2034 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.