Will the federal gas tax be suspended?
5.0% (24h)CommoditiesOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsMacro & EconomyElection6mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2027 33%-5.0%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$85.1
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
31.0% / 34.0%
Spread
9.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
May 10, 26, 10:30 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 202733%
Also available on Polymarket
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?
3.5%6mo
-2.0%37%
-3.5%4%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$17.7K
24h Vol$2K
POLYMARKETRules
If legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
- For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
- Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
- Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
- Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
- For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
- Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
- Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
- Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.