KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
People's Party, 3-6% · —
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Stored price
People's Party, 3-6% 24.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
People's Party, 3-6% 24.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$2.5K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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People's Party, 3-6%Spread
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Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 29, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · People's Party, 3-6%
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Rules
If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.
Rules for each outcome
- People's Party, 3-6%
- If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- People's Party, 6-9%
- If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 6% to 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- People's Party, 0-3%
- If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- People's Party, 9-12%
- If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 9% to 12%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- PSOE, 0-3%
- If the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- People's Party, ≥12%
- If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is at or above 12%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- PSOE, ≥3%
- If the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
