KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 269 (98%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 4:50 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 5, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 3323%
Above 24599%
Above 3412%
Above 30210%
Above 2938%
Above 26993%
Above 2817%
Above 3176%
Above 245Lost
Above 269Won
Above 257Lost
Above 293Lost
Above 281Lost
Above 302Lost
Above 317Lost
Above 341Lost
Above 310Lost
Above 332Lost
Above 324Lost
Above 353Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Carbon Arc Ro Monthly Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc.
- Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.
- The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Ro Monthly Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year.
- Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior.
- The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year.