KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Before Oct 1, 2026 (92%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 92%
Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.9K
Liquidity
$11.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
96.0% / 98.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 8, 26, 6:48 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
Before Oct 1, 202692%
Before Jan 1, 202765%
92%
91%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsMillennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?
Manifold MarketsWill a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRules
If OpenAI announces a complete solution, developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenAI
- The qualifying announcement must expressly state that OpenAI developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with OpenAI on developing that solution.
- The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem.
- Work by an independent ChatGPT user does NOT count, even if OpenAI publicizes it.
- Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution.
- Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI announce a Millennium Prize solution??
- Kalshi prices Before Oct 1, 2026 at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI announce a Millennium Prize solution? resolve?
- Will OpenAI announce a Millennium Prize solution? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI announce a Millennium Prize solution? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI announces a complete solution, developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.