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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Health & Medicine
  3. How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Health & MedicineScienceYearly6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Above 10
Above 10 62%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$1.8

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

63.0% / 69.0%

Spread

9.5%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

May 14, 26, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 2:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Above 1062%

Rules

If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 10, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8).
  • Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026.
  • See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized.
  • If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 15, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 20, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 10, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8).
  • Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026.
  • See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized.
  • If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 15, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the total number of mpox clade Ib cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 20, then the market resolves to Yes.