KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: At least 25% (98%)
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 5:08 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
At least 30%99%
At least 25%87%
At least 5%0%
At least 10%0%
At least 40%10%
At least 20%99%
At least 30%Lost
At least 20%Lost
At least 25%Won
At least 15%Lost
At least 40%Lost
At least 35%Lost
At least 5%Lost
At least 10%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Zack Polanski is leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?
Manifold MarketsIf Zack Polanski is not leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?
Manifold MarketsWill the New Zealand Green Party get 15.00% of the party vote or more at the 2026 Election?
Manifold MarketsIf the PM after the next election is Green, will hitting children be banned in England within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Green Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:London Borough of Camden
- The percentage is (votes received by the party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, use certified/official results; qualifying unofficial results may be used only under that provision.
- Write-in votes in the result are included.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- If multiple rounds occur, use the specified round or first round if none is specified.
