KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.2% 27.1%+8.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$32.9K
High liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Apr 10, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.2% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index
- If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.3% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.4% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.5% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.6% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.7% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54.5%
- No change-2.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $110M
- 24h Vol
- $4.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $752.3K
- 24h Vol
- $107.4K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting54.6%
- September Meeting-1.0pt45.4%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes70.3%
- No29.7%
- Total Vol
- $8.8M
- 24h Vol
- $28.6K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $445.4K
- 24h Vol
- $28.3K
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation US - Monthly
- 0.4%+3.5pt50%
- 0.3%-1.0pt33.6%
- ≥0.5%-0.5pt12.5%
+6 more outcomes
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI core in August
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get this year?
- PPI YoY in August
- CPI-U index in August
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.2% in August 2026?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will CPI get this year??
- Kalshi prices Above 4.2% at 27% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does How high will CPI get this year? resolve?
- How high will CPI get this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is How high will CPI get this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 4.2% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.