KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 79%
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 28.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 27, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill any major U.S. city mandate remote work options for city employees by 2026?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
If any tech company officially announces One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostABCCBSCNNMSNBCNBCthe Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR databaseThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsReutersthe Associated PressCNBCAxiosPoliticoThe Information
- The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company.
- CEO statements through official channels qualify.
- Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify.
- The announcement must occur after market issuance.
- Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+13.0pt82.2%
- Yes-13.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $17.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt54%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-24.0pt49%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-21.0pt48%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-1.5pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- John Fetterman+12.5pt41%
- Jacky Rosen38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt36%
+12 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-12.0pt45%
- Above 55-21.0pt43%
- Above 60-11.0pt38%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for One-time layoff greater than Block (40% of employees) in tech??
- Kalshi prices No at 79% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does One-time layoff greater than Block (40% of employees) in tech? resolve?
- One-time layoff greater than Block (40% of employees) in tech? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is One-time layoff greater than Block (40% of employees) in tech? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any tech company officially announces One-time layoff greater than 40% of employees before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.