KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Cut 25bps (99%)
Resolved: Sep 16, 2026, 10:09 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 16, 2026, 9:17 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Cut 25bps96%
Cut more than 50bp2%
Hike 25bps1%
Maintain current rate3%
Hike more than 50bps1%
Hike 50bps7%
Cut 25bpsWon
Cut 50bpsLost
Hike 50bpsLost
Maintain current rateLost
Cut more than 50bpLost
Hike 25bpsLost
Hike more than 50bpsLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Central Bank of Brazil takes the action of the named outcome at the September Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
