Above 419.85
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored price
No Stored bid–ask73%–74%Collected: Last trade: 72% · Trade time unknownNormalized research estimate: 72%Prices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.
No Stored bid–ask73%–74%Collected: Last trade: 72% · Trade time unknownNormalized research estimate: 72%Prices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$8.4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 3:00 AM UTCFeb 23, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Illinois home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Federal Housing Finance Agency
- The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
