KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
United States · —
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Stored price
United States 66%Leader of 5 outcomes
United States 66%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$1K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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United StatesSpread
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Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 9, 26, 12:00 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · United States
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
KalshiWill Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)
Manifold MarketsWill the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
Manifold MarketsWill the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. A model counts for the country where its credited organization is headquartered or, for a division, subsidiary or brand, where its ultimate parent is headquartered (e.g., Google DeepMind counts for the United States). If that country is not listed, every market resolves No.
Rules for each outcome
- United States
- If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- China
- If an AI lab based in China has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- United Arab Emirates
- If an AI lab based in the United Arab Emirates has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- South Korea
- If an AI lab based in South Korea has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- France
- If an AI lab based in France has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.