KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.63% or below (99%)
Resolved: Oct 6, 2026, 2:49 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
5.63% or below
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.55% or below86%
5.54% or below70%
5.51% or below34%
5.57% or below77%
5.48% or below54%
5.34% or below91%
5.39% or below81%
5.58% or below84%
5.41% or below56%
5.38% or below88%
5.37% or below90%
5.36% or below60%
5.35% or below90%
5.42% or below87%
5.4% or below65%
5.33% or below99%
5.32% or below99%
5.31% or below99%
5.3% or below99%
5.29% or below99%
5.28% or below0%
5.27% or below0%
5.26% or below21%
5.25% or below0%
5.24% or below23%
5.63% or belowWon
5.62% or belowLost
5.61% or belowLost
5.59% or belowLost
5.58% or belowLost
5.56% or belowLost
5.54% or belowLost
5.53% or belowLost
5.52% or belowLost
5.51% or belowLost
5.49% or belowLost
5.46% or belowLost
5.44% or belowLost
5.33% or belowLost
5.32% or belowLost
5.31% or belowLost
5.3% or belowLost
5.29% or belowLost
5.5% or belowLost
5.48% or belowLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.64% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
- Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
- The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.
- Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
- Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.