KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.9% or above (99%)
Resolved: Oct 29, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
4.9% or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 6:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.9% or above99%
5.06% or above29%
5.04% or above13%
5% or above86%
5.12% or above1%
4.98% or above96%
5.02% or above23%
5.1% or above10%
5.08% or above15%
4.96% or above99%
4.94% or above96%
5.14% or above7%
4.86% or above99%
4.88% or above99%
4.92% or above99%
4.9% or aboveWon
4.96% or aboveLost
4.94% or aboveLost
4.86% or aboveLost
4.88% or aboveLost
4.92% or aboveLost
4.98% or aboveLost
5% or aboveLost
5.02% or aboveLost
5.08% or aboveLost
5.04% or aboveLost
5.14% or aboveLost
5.1% or aboveLost
5.06% or aboveLost
5.12% or aboveLost
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Rules
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 29, 2026, or one week following Oct 29, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.9% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.96% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.94% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.86% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.92% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.98% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.97% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.02% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.01% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.08% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.07% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.04% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.03% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.14% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.13% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.1% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.06% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.12% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.11% on Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.