KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Exactly 3.93% 98%Leader of 8 outcomes
Exactly 3.93% 98%Market quality
20 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Open interest
$1.7K
Low open interestMarket data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 26, 1:30 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Exactly 3.93%98%
Exactly 3.94%65%
3.95% or Above4%
Exactly 3.89%1%
Exactly 3.90%1%
Exactly 3.91%1%
3.88% or Below0%
Exactly 3.92%0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SOFR at end of Q4 2026
KalshiHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
KalshiHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the initially reported SOFR for October 28, 2026 in the table named “Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data” in the column labeled “Rate (%)”. Later revisions will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
Rules for each outcome
- Exactly 3.93%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is exactly 3.93%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.94%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is exactly 3.94%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.95% or Above
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is at least 3.95%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.89%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is exactly 3.89%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.90%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is exactly 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.91%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is exactly 3.91%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3.88% or Below
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is at most 3.88%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3.92%
- If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 28, 2026 is exactly 3.92%, then the market resolves to Yes.